Russia's Economy Mixed: Services Rise, Construction Falls
The Center for Business Cycle Research at HSE University has released its quarterly report on Risk Resilience in the Real Sector and Services. The report, published on October 23, 2025, reveals a mixed picture of Russia's economic sectors.
Services emerged as the strongest performer in Q3 2025, with an RRI of 101.4%, indicating a slight increase in risk resilience. Manufacturing also showed improvement, posting its first quarterly RRI increase in two years, with an RRI of 100.3%. However, the construction sector experienced a sharp decline, falling by 0.5 percentage points.
Wholesale trade, electricity, gas, and construction sectors displayed high levels of risk resilience, with RRIs of 101.4%, 101.1%, and 100.8% respectively. However, these sectors are showing signs of mounting negative momentum. Retail trade and mining were identified as the most vulnerable, with RRIs of 99.3% and 99.5% respectively, and pessimistic trends continuing into Q4 2025. The mining sector has been particularly vulnerable since late 2024.
The report suggests that while services and manufacturing are showing signs of improvement, other sectors are facing mounting risks. The construction sector's decline is a cause for concern, and the continued vulnerability of retail trade and mining sectors may impact overall economic stability. The report's author, Inna Lola, expects the growth in risk resilience in the service sector to halt by the end of 2025, with a possible slight downward adjustment in Q4.
